Lessons from a lesser variant
Do you remember Mu?
It was a variant of concern with several troubling mutations that spread swiftly in Colombia in early 2021, fueling a surge of new cases. Today, Mu has all but vanished but it can still offer lessons for researchers that could help them understand the future of the pandemic.
“If we want to try and understand what makes variants like Omicron and Delta so successful, there’s only so much we can learn from studying them in isolation,” said my colleague Emily Anthes. “You have to also study the variants that they beat to understand what they were doing that Mu and Iota were not.”
New research has shown that Mu did not replicate faster than early variants like Alpha, Beta, Delta and Gamma, but that it was more resistant to antibodies than any known variant besides Omicron. Even so, Delta easily overtook Mu, along with several other immune-evasive variants including Beta, Gamma and Lambda, because it was so transmissible.
“Some variants are really good at spreading, and others are maybe fine at spreading, but much better at evading antibodies and our immune system defenses,” Emily said. “And at least for the first year or two years of the pandemic, transmissibility really won out.”
That may already be changing. As vaccinations and multiple waves of infection have changed the immune landscape, a highly immune-evasive variant should now have more of an edge, scientists said, which is probably part of the reason Omicron has been so successful.
Looking back at previous variants is also providing insight into what worked — and didn’t — in containing them.
Take Gamma: It was first identified in Brazil in late 2020 and then later detected in the U.S., despite a lengthy U.S. travel ban on most people coming from Brazil. Tracking the variant offers evidence that America’s travel bans were not particularly effective.
Lesser variants are also revealing our blind spots. By analyzing the genomic sequences of Mu samples collected from all over the world, researchers have reconstructed the variant’s spread and found that it circulated for months before it was detected.
“It’s a reminder that comprehensive, real-time surveillance is going to give us the best warning system for which variants pose a threat,” Emily said. Even countries that have had laudable tracking systems, like Britain, are starting to ease off and discontinue some aspect of their programs, she said. “There’s a real concern that we’re not doing enough.”
The view from Beijing
Residents in Beijing are on edge after the authorities announced new measures to contain the capital’s small but growing outbreak.
Keith Bradsher, The Times’s Beijing bureau chief, recently sent in photos of his district as unease over further restrictions grows. Authorities have been locking down entire apartment complexes as soon as cases are detected.
They have also tested around 22 million people three times in five days. To accomplish that they have set up free test sites every several blocks, like this one.
“Workers locked down a low-rise apartment complex across an avenue from my home one morning after three cases were found,” Keith wrote. “They blocked the entrance with a steel barrier.”
At the first signs of a potential outbreak, at the end of April, residents quickly emptied supermarket shelves. But with the government’s help, grocery stores have fully restocked, and stockpiling by residents has slowed.
Shanghai’s monthlong lockdown has left many residents hungry in their homes. Beijing residents worry that they may be next. Some are buying extra refrigerators. Two are on the back of this motorcycle delivery cart.
Many neighborhoods are barring outsiders. They set up tables at the entrances to their alleys to accept deliveries. Residents take turns standing guard, denying entry to anyone who does not live there.
Residents like Yang Hui, 37, a sales manager in Beijing, are preparing for the possibility of an indefinite lockdown. Last week, she ordered several boxes of instant noodles and cat litter after a positive case was detected near her home. The reopening of schools, which were closed ahead of a national holiday, has also been postponed for at least one week.
“It’s hard to plan anything in advance,” said Yang, who is now scrambling to arrange child care for her two children. “I’m so tired of Covid and the so-called zero-Covid strategy.”
What else we’re following
What you’re doing
Recently I had my yearly checkup, and all the nurse assistant did was ask me how I was and the tears started streaming down my face. I was confused because I had no idea where this reaction was coming from. But he knew. He asked several questions: How is your sleep? What do you do in a day? (I am 67, retired and widowed, with busy family near me.) Still emotional, and with tears streaming, he gently told me how hard the virus has been on elders because of isolation.
He said whether I knew it or not, I was likely depressed, and his concern for my welfare was all it took to open the floodgates. He prescribed a low-dose antidepressant and for me to get my children to make time to visit or at least call and chat. He also wanted me to get out of the house more (mask on) and do some of my pre-Covid activities. I honestly had not realized that I had isolated myself so much and blocked out so much of my feelings. I am glad to say that after a month and a half I am feeling better and doing a little more in and out of my home. So I say to my fellow seniors, having a stiff upper lip and rolling with the punches is good, but we need to realize we are social animals and need each other too.
— Margaret Siemers, a small town in Pennsylvania
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