Everyone is looking for Cinderella in the NCAA Tournament, and with a relatively week year for the ‘Goliath’s’ of the ‘Big Dance’ there are plenty of opportunities to cash in on fading the favorites.
The 2023 NCAA Tournament has plenty of overvalued teams based on a relatively down year across the board of college hoops, paving way for several longshots to advance out of the Round of 64 and possibly deep into the tournament, including a familiar sleeper Oral Roberts, who returns to the tourney with star guard Max Abmas after the team made the Sweet 16 as a No. 15 seed in 2021.
Who else can shock a top seed in the first round of the NCAA Tournament? Here are three underdogs worth taking on Thursday and Friday.
Best NCAA Tournament upset picks
- Oral Roberts vs. Duke
- Kennesaw State vs. Xavier
- Montana State vs. Kansas State
Oral Roberts vs. Duke prediction and pick
Oral Roberts Golden Eagles @ Duke Blue Devils | Odds by DraftKings
The Golden Eagles enter with the nation’s longest active winning streak of 17 games, led by Abmas, who is averaging over 22 points per game this season. Abmas is a key cog from the 2021 team, but this roster is arguably better with 7’5″ big man Connor Vanover, who transferred from Arkansas this season.
Vanover will shut down the interior, he’s top five in block rate this season, and Abmas will carve up Duke’s porous ball screen defense that has struggled to slow down dynamic guard play all season. The Blue Devils biggest struggles this season came to the likes of North Carolina State and Miami, who have guards that get down hill and open up the floor for the opposing offense. Abmas has a ton of upside in this game.
On the other side, Duke’s offense is firing during their nine game winning streak, but this is a roster that struggles to score from the perimeter. The team is shooting 36% from 3 during their nine game heater, 109th in that time span, but on the year this is still a below average shooting team on the year.
With Vanover down low, and Abmas cooking on offense, there are real concerns for the Blue Devils in this one. The defense doesn’t turn opponents over, 273rd in generating TO’s this season, and Oral Roberts is No. 1 in turnover rate this season.
I don’t trust the Blue Devils offense to outpace the best scorer on the floor with NCAA Tournament experience in Abmas. I think Oral Roberts keeps this one close and is live for an upset.
PICK: Oral Roberts +240
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Kennesaw State vs. Xavier prediction and pick
Kennesaw State Owls @ Xavier Musketeers | Odds by DraftKings
Xavier was a team I was angling to fade in the NCAA Tournament, and this matchup sets up perfectly for Kennesaw State to stay close to the Musketeers.
The Owls are into their first ever NCAA Tournament, but this team is familiar with playing high level competition this season, losing by 10 at Florida, three at VCU and was tied at Indiana before losing by 14 at Assembly Hall. Overall, this team has covered nine out of 12 times as an underdog this season.
The team is an elite 3-point shooting group that can match Xavier’s perimeter prowess as well, Kennesaw State hits is 33rd in three-point percentage while Xavier checks in third in that metric. If KSU is able to get big man Jack Nunge in motion and guard Terrell Burden can get into the paint to create open looks off of screens, this game is going to be back-and-forth throughout.
If you take out adjustments for the Xavier defense on KenPom, you see that there are some serious issues for the team on that side of the ball, the team is 172th in raw defensive efficiency, per TeamRankings.com.
The Owls can also keep a lid on Xavier with their constant changing of defensive schemes. Amir Abdur-Rahim has his team throwing different looks at opponents often, including a press that can cause issues for Xavier, who is 129th in turnover percentage.
This will not be an easy first round matchup for Sean Miller’s Musketeers with the Owls’ ability to gash the overrated Xavier defense. If Kennesaw State is on from three, look out, we may have an upset early Friday afternoon.
PICK: Kennesaw State +490
Montana State vs. Kansas State prediction and pick
Montana State Bobcats @ Kansas State Wildcats | Odds by DraftKings
Another vulnerable No. 3 seed is Kansas State, who has plenty of issues heading into its first round matchup against Big Sky champs Montana State.
While the Big 12 was the best conference in college hoops this season, that also leads to a lot of inflated rankings when adjusting for strength of schedule. Take Kansas State, who checks in 52nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 19th in adjusted defensive efficiency. However, the raw numbers are concerning. The team is 139th in raw offensive efficiency and 38th on the defensive side of the ball.
While the team is battle tested, the numbers show that they may not be as highly rated as one may think, making them ripe to let down bettors as big favorites.
They face a Montana State team that is elite on the defensive side of the ball and can put some pressure on the No. 3 seed. Kansas State’s turnover woes are a big concern in this one, the team is 299th in turnover percentage, which is going to be magnified against the Bobcats defense that is top 75 in the country in forcing TO’s.
Further, Danny Sprinkle’s group is a physical one, getting to the free throw line at a top five clip nationally and hitting 76% of their freebies, the 32nd best mark in the country. Kansas State is shaky in this regard, sending foes to the line at the 65th highest rate in the country.
Lastly, is Kansas State overvalued because of its home success? The team sees the seventh biggest drop-off when they leave the ‘Little Apple’ of Manhattan, Kansas, according to Haslametrics.
The Bobcats made the NCAA Tournament last year and got blasted by a Big 12 foe in Texas Tech. I think this experienced group avoids a blowout and shocks an overrated Kansas State team.
Full disclosure, I did get a +9.5 on this one, but I still would play this at +8.5.
PICK: Montana State +320
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