As the NFL media and NFL front offices continue to get smarter, everybody has realized the value of trading down in the NFL Draft. This is something that Bill Belichick was exploiting for years. It’s never the splashiest move, but you need a lot of good players on your 53-man roster to win a Super Bowl and trading down allows you accumulate talent instead of getting one player you hope turns into a star.
A trade down can be smart for all kinds of different teams. The Arizona Cardinals believe they have their quarterback in Kyler Murray, so they’ve put a for sale sign on the No. 3 overall pick. They absolutely should trade down, but the Cardinals are staring a double-digit loss season in the face, so let’s focus on teams that can boost their Super Bowl odds by trading down in the first 32-picks of the NFL Draft.
3 teams that should trade down to improve Super Bowl odds
Chicago Bears No. 9 overall (from Carolina)
Buffalo Bills No. 27 overall
New Orleans Saints No. 29 (from San Francisco through Miami and Denver)
Chicago Bears No. 9 overall
I know, the Bears already moved out of No. 1 and got a haul for the top slot in the draft from the Panthers. I don’t think that Chicago should be done moving just yet. There are some blue chip players at the top of this draft, but a lot of those guys could be gone by No. 9.
The Bears desperately need to build up their offensive and defensive lines, but those are units where it’s all about the weak link in the chain. Drafting one stud left tackle at No. 9 would not solidify their offensive line in front of Justin Fields because there would still be question marks at two or three other spots. The dominant pass-rushers will likely be gone, but even a Jalen Carter if he slides wouldn’t give Chicago a great defense because they’re still so talent deficient across the rest of the line.
The Bears should be shopping No. 9 overall and if Carter or one of the quarterbacks do fall, then they could extract even more value out of having the No. 1 overall pick.
Buffalo Bills No. 27 overall
The Bills have the second best odds to win it all, but after a 27-10 loss to Cincinnati in the divisional round last season, I view them as much further off. They don’t have the physicality needed on offense and they’re one or two playmakers short. One of my favorite fits for them is Darnell Washington, the tight end out of Georgia who is like a dynamic, pass-catching, sixth offensive lineman. He would give them the physicality for January football in Buffalo and he would give them another red zone option outside of Stephon Diggs.
The Bills can trade out of the first-round and let some team come back in to make the Hendon Hooker mistake, grab an early second-rounder to use on Washington, then take their second round pick, No. 59 overall and get one of the dynamic, undersized receivers like Tank Dell out of Houston to put in the slot.
With one move, the team could solve some of its offensive woes, and they might even become the Super Bowl favorites in the AFC.
New Orleans Saints No. 29
Jalen Hurts is the alpha dog QB in the NFC, but after that the conference is wide open. I don’t view the Saints as a contender right now, but with Derek Carr, they might have the fourth best quarterback in the conference behind Dak Prescott and Geno Smith (assuming an Aaron Rodgers trade/retirement). The NFC South is the worst division in football, so if the Saints can stockpile enough talent in this draft then they could find themselves as one of the NFC favorites.
Mickey Loomis would probably be nauseous if he read this. The man doesn’t believe in the salary cap and he spits in the face of teams that trade down. However, his team is lucky to even have a first-round pick after trading up for Chris Olave last year and it’s time to go for quantity over quality.
The Saints need help on the offensive line, they need help at receiver, and they could use a tight end for Carr. That’s just their needs on offense. On the other side, they could use an edge rusher, an interior lineman, and a corner wouldn’t hurt either. Please Mickey, for once just trade back and add as much talent as possible. Instead he’ll probably move up to 14 for Lukas Van Ness.
Bonus: Pittsburgh Steelers No. 32
I don’t know if you noticed, but I said the first 32 picks, not the first round. That way I could fit my favorite team, the Steelers, in as a little bonus here. A special shoutout to Omar Khan for fleecing the Bears at the trade deadline and swapping Chase Claypool for the Bears second round pick. Because Miami forfeited their first-round pick this year, the Steelers are selecting 32 overall, and it sounds like they’re open for business.
I suggested that the Steelers should trade up in the first round for one of the top offensive tackles, and then they can recoup that value by moving back from 32. I want them to slide back and take a Mazi Smith or Keeanu Benton to beef up their defensive line in the second round and then with the third or fourth round pick they’ll get for moving back they can add a Trey Palmer to give them more speed at receiver. If they hang on to their own second rounder then they can even add a corner in the late second.
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