UC Santa Barbara won the Big West and now return to the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three seasons.
The Gauchos have been given a No. 14 seeding and they’ll face the No. 3 Baylor Bears in the opening round.
Baylor will be doing its best to gear up for another deep NCAA Tournament run after being crowned National Champions in 2020-21.
Let’s dive into the odds and my best bet for this Round of 64 showdown.
UCSB vs. Baylor odds, spread, and total
UCSB vs. Baylor prediction and pick
There are some things to love about UCSB, but I don’t have confidence in them to cover the spread based on their subpar defense. Instead, I’m going to look at the total in this game and bet on the OVER.
UCSB is going to struggle to stop Baylor’s perimeter offense. The Bears rank 22nd in the country in three-point rate, and UCSB ranks 217th in opponent three-point field goal percentage.
With that being said, the opposite is true on the other end of the spectrum. UCSB ranks 22nd in the country in two-point shot rate, and the Bears interior defense has struggled all season, ranking 314th in opponent two-point field goal percentage.
Both teams also do a great job of making the most of their offensive possessions. If you take a look at the start called floor%, which measures the percentage of a team’s possessions that result in at least one point being scored, these two teams rank 17th and 37th.
A high percentage of possessions resulting in points should bode well for the OVER.
Give me the OVER in this 3/14 matchup.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
