Michigan State and Marquette each looked impressive in their Round of 64 victories setting up an intriguing 2/7 matchup in the East Region that is suddenly ripe for the taking with No. 1 Purdue bowing out in the first round to No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson.
Marquette has overachieved all season long, hardly looked at as a threat to win the Big East and proceeded to win the regular season and conference tournament title, and now will look to make the Sweet 16 under Shaka Smart against Tom Izzo’s Spartans.
How should we bet this Round of 32 meeting? Here are the odds:
Michigan State vs. Marquette odds, spread and total
Michigan State vs. Marquette prediction and pick
I believe Marquette has the ability to dictate the stylistic clash between Michigan State’s prodding tempo and the frenetic Golden Eagles offense. The Spartans don’t pressure the ball and rarely attack in transition, but Marquette wants to run on offense, averaging the 16th shortest possession length when they have the ball.
Further, Sparty is over-reliant on its shot making away from the rim. The team is bottom 100 in two-point percentage, but is third in the nation on three-point percentage despite taking them at the 301st highest rate. So, this is a team that doesn’t pride themselves on their shot making from distance, rather it’s simply tough shot making.
Maybe that keeps up, but I’ll trust the far superior offense that has five threats to score the rock, including Tyler Kolek and Kam Jones, as the team is top 10 in effective field goal percentage and incredibly adept at finishing inside, top five in two-point percentage this season.
Michigan State does do a great job of limiting transition opportunities, the 20th lowest rate in the country, but Marquette is capable scoring in transition or not. The team is 18th in transition effective field goal percentage and 15th in non transition opportunities. The offense is simply electric.
This is going to be a culture shock for Michigan State, who is used to playing a methodical style in the Big Ten and wasn’t challenged by a lackluster USC effort on offense in their first round win. Marquette is a different beast, and I think their offense rolls to a Sweet 16 berth.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
