Round of 32 action continues on Saturday with wall-to-wall NCAA Tournament coverage, but will underdogs continue to pay out?
The BetSided team has compiled their favorite underdog bets for Saturday’s second round action, including first round underdogs Penn State looking to keep their hot streak going against No. 2 Texas while Arkansas tries to stymie Kansas quest for a repeat.
Here are two underdogs worth considering on Saturday:
Arkansas vs. Kansas prediction and pick
Believe it or not, I like Arkansas in this spot. Yes, Kansas has the more impressive resume and the better record, but statistically, these two are are more similar than you might think.
The Jayhawks slightly outrank the Razorbacks in shooting, coming in at 75th in effective field goal percentage compared to 96th, but Arkansas comes in ahead of Kansas in defensive efficiency, rebounding, and extra scoring chances per game.
Kansas’ average scoring margin is also only slightly above Arkansas, at +7.6 compared to +7.1.
The Razorbacks have also proven they can hang with the big dogs. They lost by just three points in their last game against Alabama, and they have wins against the likes of Missouri, San Diego State, and Missouri.
Despite this being a No. 1 vs. No. 8 game, this game is a lot closer than you might think, and I’ll take the points with the Hogs on Saturday.
PICK: Arkansas
Penn State vs. Texas prediction and pick
Penn State is one of the most prolific 3-point shooting teams in the country, top 10 in volume and top five in percentage, as the team plays a five out offense around point forward Jalen Pickett.
The Nittany Lions slow games to a crawl and try to maximize their possessions with shots from beyond the arc, and boy did they against Texas A&M, drilling 13 of 22 3s (including an absurd eight of 10 from Andrew Funk), en route to a 17-point win.
The key to beating Penn State is in the mid-range. Micah Shrewsberry’s team plays an incredibly compact defense, holding foes to one chance and keeping teams out of the paint with its versatility.
However, Texas has the ability to get into the mid-range and rise and fire with the likes of Marcus Carr, Timmy Allen and Sir’Jabari Rice, but I don’t trust their defense to pull away from PSU.
I expect Seth Lundy and co. to drag out the likes of Dylan Disu and Christian Bishop along the perimeter, opening up the offense for the Nittany Lions and for their hot shooting to keep up. Again, this is a team that is a top five 3-point shooting team in the country and everybody is a threat.
Further, the Longhorns shot an astonishing 56% on 23 3-point attempts in the win vs. Colgate, I can see some natural regression to the mean from the Longhorns wings.
Lastly, Shrewsberry is as good as they come on quick turnaround. The former Purdue assistant is 24-11 against the spread as an underdog and 9-0 with no rest. I like the Nittany Lions to keep it rolling and possibly upset the No. 2 seed.
PICK: Penn State
