Alabama rallied from a second half deficit for the third straight game en route to clinching the SEC regular season title.
Now, the Crimson Tide head to second place Texas A&M to cap off the regular season. The Aggies have won seven of eight games, including over Tennessee, and would like to continue strengthening their resume to the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee with a win on Saturday afternoon against a very likely No. 1 seed.
Here are the odds for the SEC season finale in College Station:
Alabama vs. Texas A&M odds, spread and total
Alabama vs. Texas A&M prediction and pick
Alabama isn’t playing its best basketball down the stretch of the season. While the team hasn’t lost many games to date, the team has had to rally in three straight games to win amidst the Brandon Miller drama, most recently in overtime against Auburn on Wednesday night.
Few teams see a bigger drop off when they play on the road than the Crimson Tide, who are 353rd in Haslametrics‘ away from home rating.
That is going to play a role on Saturday when they are going to be hoisting jumpers against the compact Texas A&M defense that forces opponents to take the third farthest average shot this season. The Crimson Tide are second in SEC 3-point shooting, but that’s still just average when you look at it on a national scale. The Aggies are an elite ball pressure defense and can give the Crimson Tide fits for 40 minutes.
This is also an Alabama team that wants to run, but A&M is 15th in effective field goal percentage allowed in transition. The team is going to force this into a grind, where they will take over with their physicality.
The Aggies are a unique offense, not necessarily the most efficient, but they maximize their edges, getting to the line at the third highest rate in the country and are top 10 in offensive rebounding rate. Alabama’s sending opponents to the line in droves over the last month, 337th in opponent free throw rate since Feb. 1, and this can be the key to an Aggies upset victory.
This line is going to come out short, but I like Texas A&M to cover the spread at over a possession and be live for a small home upset in the season finale.
PICK: Texas A&M +2.5
Track all of Reed’s bets at Betstamp HERE!
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
