Arkansas and Auburn meet in the SEC Tournament second round in hopes of building some momentum ahead of the NCAA Tournament.
The Tigers scored a massive win at home in their final game of the season, knocking off Tennessee while Arkansas sputtered to a three game losing streak to the class of the SEC down the stretch in Alabama, the aforementioned Volunteers and Kentucky.
Can Arkansas, the favorite in this one, get on track in Knoxville, Tennessee? Let’s check out the odds:
Arkansas vs. Auburn odds, spread and total
Arkansas vs. Auburn prediction and pick
These two met once in the regular season, but the Razorbacks didn’t have their lead guard in Nick Smith, and proceeded to hit just two of their 16 three-point attempts in the game as Auburn went into a rare zone and dared the Hogs to beat them from deep. Of course, they didn’t in a 72-59 loss.
However, Arkansas did dominate on the glass, grabbing 17 offensive rebounds and got to the free throw line 32 times (they hit only 59% of them). So, with Smith on the floor, the Razorbacks make sense as the favorite in this one against an Auburn offense that lacks perimeter prowess themselves, 316th in the country in three-point percentage.
Back to Smith, who has had a massive impact on the quality of Arkansas’ offense. The offense operates as a top 20 unit when he plays and their three-point percentage is up to nearly 35% as a team. The jump from him on the floor to off the floor is 317th to 145th, per Hoop-Explorer.
The Hogs defense is strong on the interior, lowest three-point rate allowed in SEC play, but also are top 20 this season at defending at the rim, according Haslametrics.
I think the Hogs take care of business on a neutral floor.
