Breaking down the PGA DFS slate and our AT&T Byron Nelson DraftKings picks with our top plays, top fades and building a winning lineup.
For just the second year, the AT&T Byron Nelson will take up residence at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, TX this week, one week out from the PGA Championship. With the tune-up factor in play, we’re looking at a strong field — much more so than in 2021 — that should be fun to tackle for our DraftKings picks and building our PGA DFS lineup.
After a bit of a cold streak, our lineup last week cashed, though for minimal return. Nate Lashley withdrawing and my now-wavering faith in Tyler Duncan limited the ceiling of the lineup but having Max Homa (winner) and Cameron Young (T2) buoyed the lineup in a big way to cash in the DraftKings tournaments.
Let’s try to not only cash again but get even better. We’re running through the top plays and top fades in each price range before building our lineup.
DraftKings picks for AT&T Byron Nelson PGA DFS lineups: Top Plays
$10,000: Justin Thomas ($10,600) – It’s truly baffling that Justin Thomas has been kept away from winning since THE PLAYERS last year. Put simply, he’s playing well enough to win and a birdie-fest might be the recipe for him. I’m not in love with the $10K range this week but think, if you’re going up there, Thomas is the runaway best play for the week. Also Consider: Jordan Spieth ($10,100)
$9,000: Will Zalatoris ($9,400) – This truly came down to Zalatoris and Sam Burns, both of whom have a shot at getting an outright win this week. As I stuck my flag on Willy Z island, though, I’m riding with that. For a scoring bonanza that will require great driving distance and irons to take full advantage, this feels like Zalatoris’ time to shine and perhaps get his maiden victory on the PGA Tour. Also Consider: Hideki Matsuyama ($9,900), Sam Burns ($9,500), Joaquin Niemann ($9,300)
$8,000: Aaron Wise ($8,100) – Wise is another player who I love to fit the recipe this week given what he does. He’s been ball-striking the hell out of it as of late and the short game continues to be worrisome. However, I don’t think that he necessarily will be too penalized on pedestrian greens this week, which makes me love the upside Wise presents with this type of pricing. Also Consider: Talor Gooch ($8,600), Jhonattan Vegas ($8,400), Adam Hadwin ($8,000)
$7,000: Kurt Kitayama ($7,400) – Coming off of two-straight Top 15 showings, I don’t know how you look at Kitayama and don’t like what you see. He drives the ball a ton and has recently been one of the best iron and approach players in this field. Also gaining on the greens, I can’t believe this price and am running to have him in just about every lineup. Also Consider: Seamus Power ($7,900), Davis Riley ($7,700), Lanto Griffin ($7,700), K.H. Lee ($7,500), Luke List ($7,300), Matthew Wolff ($7,200), Patton Kizzire ($7,100), Patrick Rodgers ($7,000)
$6,000: Hudson Swafford ($6,700) – You might’ve forgotten, but Swafford has already won on the PGA Tour this year, taking it home at The American Express. He’s been up and down since but has four straight missed cuts that includes three Top 40 finishes. In all honesty, I’m trying to avoid the $6K range in this tournament because of the value in the $7-9K range. With that said, if you have to dip down here, Swafford is a solid play with some upside. Also Consider: Wyndham Clark ($6,900), Doc Redman ($6,800), Austin Smotherman ($6,600),
DraftKings picks for AT&T Byron Nelson PGA DFS lineups: Top Fades
$10,000: Scottie Scheffler ($10,900) – Some might think this is becoming a habit, but I’m fading the top golfer on the slate this week again. Yes, Scheffler has been scorching hot — but now he’s coming off of a long lay-off and the week before the next major after he won The Masters. I normally don’t buy the tune-up narrative, but I think it’s relevant here. Even if he plays decently, Thomas and guys in the $9K range have more upside while saving a bit of money for the rest of your lineup.
$9,000: Tommy Fleetwood ($9,000) – If you just look at recent results, Fleetwood might entice you. He’s been on a tear with Top 20s as of late. However, he’s been average or worse on approach, which is going to be so crucial at TPC Craig Ranch, while gaining a ton around and on the greens. I don’t like that style for a scoring fest this week as you’ll need to be in good position, so I’m in full fade of Fleetwood.
$8,000: Adam Scott ($8,700) – Scott isn’t playing poorly necessarily as he’s only missed the cut once this season at THE PLAYERS when he got on the wrong side of the brutal draw. However, the upside just isn’t there as it is with guys around him in the $8K range. He has only one finish on the PGA Tour inside the Top 20 since November and just doesn’t seem in top overall form. As the highest-priced player in this tier, I’m passing on him this week.
$7,000: Matt Kuchar ($7,700) – Kuchar was my fade last week and I’m back on it again, albeit for different reasons. He’s been playing well enough and like a veteran, but his style of play does not seem conducive to success in a birdie-fest. Kuch should come out and not be a disaster by any stretch, but I just don’t see the upside that I do with many others in this range.
AT&T Byron Nelson: Best DraftKings golf lineup
Sam Burns ($9,500)Will Zalatoris ($9,400)Jhonattan Vegas ($8,400)Aaron Wise ($8,100)Kurt Kitayama ($7,400)Patton Kizzire ($7,100)
Tell me how this lineup doesn’t finish first place?
I’m turning my back to the $10K range despite how much I like Justin Thomas just because of the value that provides and, just as importantly, because I don’t have to dip into a $6K range that I don’t like.
Burns is a stud — and one of BetSided’s Iain MacMillan’s outright winner picks — who finished in second place here last year and might be even better now. Vegas is trending in a huge way as well with three straight T18 or better finishes and a strong game that should fit this course.
The big one to watch is Kizzire, but he tied for third at the AT&T Byron Nelson last year and could be trending to do that again with four T33 or better finishes in his last five starts. I like him as a cheap option to make the cut and compete well at this venue once again.
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