March Madness rolls on with Friday’s Round of 64 action.
16 games start a little after noon on the east coast and run through the night to see who will extend their seasons into the weekend in the Round of 32. The East Region is seen as the most wide open conference and a pair of dark horse matchups between No. 8 seed Memphis and No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic playing in addition to No. 6 seed Kentucky matching up with No. 11 seed Providence.
Meanwhile, trendy upset pick No. 12 seed Drake takes on No. 5 Miami as a small underdog, does Iain MacMillian buy the hype?
Here are three of our best bets for Friday’s Round 1 action.
Providence vs. Kentucky prediction and pick
This is a bad matchup for the Friars, who don’t start any players taller than 6’8″ and just struggled badly with UConn’s physicality inside. Oscar Tshiebwe is set up to vanquish his demons from last season’s NCAA Tournament and I expect the Wildcats to advance as a result.
In two losses to the Huskies over the last few weeks, Providence was outrebounded by a total of 75-45. Well, Tshiebwe averages over 13 rebounds per game by himself for a Kentucky team that ranks second (to UConn) in offensive rebounding rate (38.7%). As long as Tshiebwe stays out of foul trouble, he should have a massive game.
I’m discouraged by how the Friars ended the season as well. They were just 3-6 against the spread (ATS) over their final nine games and are just 1-5 outright in their last six as underdogs. Kentucky, on the other hand, was a covering machine against teams not named Vanderbilt.
The Wildcats went 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games and should feast inside against a Providence team that ranks 157th in opponent two-point shooting percentage (49.6%). Back Kentucky to avoid another early exit and down the Friars. — Joseph Summers
PICK: Kentucky -4
Drake vs. Miami (Florida) prediction and pick
When it comes to betting on the game, I can’t get to the Hurricanes only being a 2.5-point favorite. Miami is too good of a shooting team to set them as just slight favorites against a team from the MVC. The Canes rank 20th in the country in effective field goal percentage, playing against much better defenses than Drake.
The Bulldogs did beat their only ranked opponent of the season, Mississippi State by a final score of 58-52, but Mississippi State ended up being a last four in team to the tournament and Drake has other ugly losses like a 30 point loss to Richmond, and 8 point loss to Saint Louis, and five other losses to teams inside their conference.
Miami’s weakness, which will cost them at some point this tournament, is their defense. They rank only 208th in the country in defensive efficiency. But their shooting and their 85th ranking in extra scoring chances per game (+2.0) should be enough, in my opinion, to comfortably carry them past Drake in the Round of 64. — Iain MacMillian
PICK: Miami -2
Florida Atlantic vs. Memphis prediction and pick
Florida Atlantic’s numbers are off the chart. Sure, we have to realize that they play in a relatively weak Conference-USA, but there are plenty of teams in the tournament from far worse conference with far worse numbers.
Let’s take a quick look at where they rank in some key areas:
- Effective field goal percentage – 19th
- Defensive efficiency – 16th
- Extra scoring chances per game – 56th
- Rebounding percentage – 20th
- Effective possession ratio – 60th
Those are some damn solid numbers for a team that hasn’t been getting much public hype this season. Memphis ranks below them in every single one of those areas, most notably 161st in extra chances per game and 207th in effective possession ratio.
It’s also worth noting that Memphis is 20th in the country in two-point shot rate, and now they take on an FAU team that’s 11th in the country in opponent two-point field goal percentage, keeping teams to shooting 44.8% from down low.
I’ll back Florida Atlantic in what should be an intriguing game to watch. — Iain MacMillian
PICK: FAU ML (+115)
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
