It’s March Madness time with the NCAA Tournament getting underway on Thursday, March 16th.
We are treated to wire-to-wire coverage starting on Thursday at 12:15 PM EST in an 8/9 matchup between West Virginia and Maryland. and it will go well past midnight with coverage capping out west between No. 2 seed UCLA and UNC Asheville.
What about some of the marquee matchups over the course of the day such as Oral Roberts trying to upset vaunted Duke? Or the people’s main event between the red hot Penn State Nittany Lions and underseeded No. 7 Texas A&M?
Here’s our best bets for the first day of the NCAA Tournament:
Oral Roberts vs. Duke prediction and pick
The Golden Eagles enter with the nation’s longest active winning streak of 17 games, led by Abmas, who is averaging over 22 points per game this season. Abmas is a key cog from the 2021 team, but this roster is arguably better with 7’5″ big man Connor Vanover, who transferred from Arkansas this season.
Vanover will shut down the interior, he’s top five in block rate this season, and Abmas will carve up Duke’s porous ball screen defense that has struggled to slow down dynamic guard play all season. The Blue Devils biggest struggles this season came to the likes of North Carolina State and Miami, who have guards that get down hill and open up the floor for the opposing offense. Abmas has a ton of upside in this game.
On the other side, Duke’s offense is firing during their nine game winning streak, but this is a roster that struggles to score from the perimeter. The team is shooting 36% from three during their nine game heater, 109th in that time span, but on the year this is still a below average shooting team on the year.
With Vanover down low, and Abmas cooking on offense, there are real concerns for the Blue Devils in this one. The defense doesn’t turn opponents over, 273rd in generating TO’s this season, and Oral Roberts is No. 1 in turnover rate this season.
I don’t trust the Blue Devils offense to outpace the best scorer on the floor with NCAA Tournament experience in Abmas. I think Oral Roberts keeps this one close and is live for an upset. — Reed Wallach
PICK: Oral Roberts +6.5
Boise State vs. Northwestern prediction and pick
I have a general rule of not betting on Mountain West teams in the NCAA Tournament. They are 1-11 both straight up and against the spread in their first games of the tournament.
But, I’m making an exception to that rule in this spot.
Northwestern is one of the most fraudulent teams in this year’s edition of the tournament, especially as a No. 7 seed.
Northwestern is 320th in the country in effective field goal percentage. That’s just ahead of teams like Georgia, South Carolina and Georgetown.
Sure, Northwestern is fantastic defensively, coming in at 18th in defensive efficiency, but the Broncos can hang with them in that area, coming in at 35th in defensive efficiency.
Don’t even bother with the spread, I’m betting on Boise State to win this game outright. It’s time to fade the fraudulent Wildcats who stumbled down the stretch at the end of the season. — Iain MacMillian
PICK: Boise State ML (+105)
Penn State vs. Texas A&M prediction and pick
When you’re facing Penn State you better be ready for a barrage from deep. The Nittany Lions can really fill it up with Seth Lundy and Andrew Funk firing from behind the arc. As a team they shoot 38.9% from three (27th in the country) on 27.0 attempts per game.
All of that shooting is centered around Jalen Pickett, who averages 17.9 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 6.7 assists all to lead the team. They just rolled through the Big 10 Tournament as a No. 10 seed all the way to the final and lost by two to Purdue while only shooting 30% from deep.
Texas A&M is a good defensive team, so they should be able to slow down Penn State, but nobody can really stop the Nittany Lions offense right now. They’ll need to outscore Penn State in this one. That responsibility falls on Wade Taylor IV’s shoulders. He averaged 16.5 points and 4.0 assists this year, but I’ll favor Pickett in that matchup.
Penn State is most vulnerable inside on defense, we saw that when Zach Edey just dismantled them, but Texas A&M doesn’t have a post threat to dominate the game. This feels like Micah Shrewsberry’s year and despite thinking A&M should be a much higher seed, I think they’ll lose to the Nittany Lions in the first round. — Josh Yourish
PICK: Penn State ML (+135)
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
