Sunday’s March Madness wraps up a weekend bender of college hoops that includes the Round of 64 and Round of 32.
Player props are a budding market around college basketball, especially around the NCAA Tournament, here are three players that have matchup advantages or disadvantages in second round matchups on Sunday which are generating some prop value.
March Madness Round of 32 player props
- Oscar Tshiebwe OVER 13.5 Rebounds (-130)
- Ryan Kalkbrenner OVER 16.5 Points (-110)
- Julian Strawther UNDER 15.5 Points (-115)
Oscar Tshiebwe OVER 13.5 Rebounds (-130)
Tshiebwe dominated on the glass against Providence, hauling in 21 rebounds in the first round, and the reigning National Player of the Year is in line for another big game on Sunday.
Kansas State is outside the top 200 in terms of defensive rebounding rate and don’t force the issue on the offensive glass either, 98th in OREB%. That makes for an appetizing matchup for the Kentucky big man, who is the best rebounder in the country.
Neither offense is particularly efficient, Kansas State is 102nd in effective field goal percentage and Kentucky is 168th, so I don’t see a ton of makes and plenty of shots off the rim, giving Tshiebwe plenty of chances to grab boards.
While this number seems high on the surface, I still think over is the play.
Ryan Kalkbrenner OVER 16.5 Points (-110)
In a game that is being lined like a coin flip, I think the Creighton big man can be the difference on both ends. While he is one of the best rim protectors in the country, it’s his offense that can take over against a helpless Baylor defense that is 315th in two-point percentage allowed.
The Bears simply don’t have the bodies to hang with the 7’1″ Kalkbrenner, who shoots 74% on two’s (mostly coming around the rim) and is capable of stretching the floor and hitting an open three, if available. On the year, Kalkbrenner has canned six of his 18 three’s, including one in the first round matchup against North Carolina State.
Baylor has the second best offense in terms of KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric, so Creighton is going to have to score to keep up, and I think Kalkbrenner is going to be the primary point of attack after scoring 31 points in the first round.
Julian Strawther UNDER 15.5 Points (-115)
https://tallysight.com/new/widget/tile/ncaab/org:fansided/event:2022-23-march-madness-second-round/topic:tcu-horned-frogs-gonzaga-bulldogs-west-regional-second-round-game-3/variant:1/sportsbook:draftkings/prop:6415eaef72e780619d1ffb63
Strawther had a massive game against Grand Canyon in the first round, scoring 28 points on 60% shooting from the field, including three 3-point shots. However, I’m going to back some natural regression against a TCU defense that has the wing defenders to check the Gonzaga wing.
TCU is an elite perimeter defense, top 30 in 3-point percentage allowed and do a good job of running teams off the three-point line into the length of the defense where they are top third in the country in terms of mid-range defense, per Haslametrics.
The Gonzaga wing has microwave tendencies, putting up 40 in a conference matchup, but against elite competition, averaging below 12 points against NCAA Tournament opponents in the regular season.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
