The NCAA Tournament’s First Four games get underway tonight as the SE Missouri State Redhawks take on the Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders as 16 seeds in the South region, while the Pittsburgh Panthers and Mississippi State Bulldogs square off as 11 seeds in the Midwest.
I’m targeting a few player props as the action kicks off – let’s jump in and get this madness started!
Best NCAA Tournament First Four Prop Bets Tonight
SE Missouri State vs. Texas A&M-CC
The Islanders are slight favorites in this game, having won 12 of their last 13. We can expect a high-scoring contest as both teams play at lightning-fast paces and foul a lot, leading to numerous trips to the free-throw line.
Here are two players that I think are in for big nights.
Isaac Mushila OVER 15.5 Points (-115)
The 6’5″ senior forward is the heart and soul of the Islanders, averaging 14.4 points per game on nearly 55% shooting while leading the team in rebounding (9.7 per game). He has only 15 points total in Texas A&M-CC’s last two contests but I believe that’s creating value in a matchup that suits him perfectly.
SE Missouri State is a small team that has only one player averaging more than five rebounds per game. The Redhawks rank 354th nationally in opponent free throw rate (43.6%), meaning they allow a healthy dose of offensive rebounds that then lead to free throws.
Well, Mushila handily leads the Islanders in rebounding and averages just under six free throw attempts per game. I expect a lot of put-back looks for the senior as a result, giving him a clear path to the over. That the Redhawks play at the nation’s 12th-fastest pace helps things too, as we’ll have more possessions than normal to drive up the score.
Phillip Russell OVER 17.5 Points (-122)
Russell propelled the Redhawks to an NCAA Tournament bid with four straight wins after a middling regular season, and I don’t expect him to take his foot off the gas now.
The sophomore guard caught fire of late, clearing this prop in three of his last four games while shooting over 42% from beyond the arc in that stretch. Over his last five games, he’s averaging 15 shots per night and that healthy volume alone should help him hit this number with the game’s expected fast pace.
To help matters, the Islanders rank 276th in opponent effective field goal percentage (52.4%). With Russell entering tonight on a heater and up against a poor defense, he should have another great performance.
Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi State
This is a classic strength vs. strength matchup, with the Panthers bringing one of the nation’s better offenses against a Mississippi State defense that ranks among the country’s best. The Bulldogs are short favorites, though both of these teams could make a run starting with a win tonight.
Let’s look at the two players I’m targeting:
Blake Hinson OVER 5.5 Rebounds (-110)
Mississippi State is a dreadful offensive team, ranking 326th in effective field goal percentage (46.9%). That means plenty of rebounds will be available, and Pittsburgh’s leading rebounder is in a position to take advantage of that.
Hinson is pounding the glass of late, clearing this number in eight of his last dozen games, including a nine-rebound performance against Georgia Tech and a 13-rebound effort against Notre Dame over the last two weeks.
The Bulldogs rank 209th in defensive rebounding rate (72.9%), so Hinson will have room to attack and clear this number with ease.
Tolu Smith OVER 17.5 Points (-110)
It’s critical to shop around to find the best numbers, and FanDuel is offering a 17.5-point prop for Smith vs. 18.5 around the rest of the market. The Bulldogs realized over the last couple of weeks that Smith is their best player and I’m backing him to continue his excellent stretch tonight.
Against Vanderbilt 10 days ago, Smith put up 27 points with 11 rebounds. He followed that up with 28 points and 12 rebounds against Florida before only notching 17 points and 11 rebounds against Alabama on limited minutes due to the game being a blowout.
Simply put, he’s on fire and knows it. Smith had at least 10 free throw attempts in each of those contests and can feast against a Panthers team that ranks 187th in defensive rebounding percentage (73.4%) and 162nd in defensive free throw rate (30.6%).
Trust Smith to stay hot and overwhelm Pittsburgh inside.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
