The Colorado State Rams were one of the best teams in the Mountain West last season, but losing guard David Roddy to the NBA has set the Rams back in a big way this season.
Colorado State enters Tuesday’s matchup against No. 22 San Diego State with the second worst record in the Mountain West, going 4-10 in conference play.
Meanwhile, the Aztecs are 12-2 in the conference and an impressive 13-1 at home so far this season.
These teams matched up earlier this season in Colorado with San Diego State pulling out an 82-76 road win.
The Aztecs are 21-5 on the season and come into this game on a four-game winning streak, leading to Vegas setting a rather large spread on this game. How should we bet it?
Colorado State vs. San Diego State odds, spread and total
Colorado State vs. San Diego State prediction and pick
This is just the second time this season that the Rams have found themselves as 10.5-point or more underdogs, but I’m fading them in this spot.
San Diego State has a few key advantages in this game, starting with the team’s elite defense.
The Aztecs rank 19th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom, and they are great at limiting the 3-ball (10th in the country in opponent 3-point percentage).
That actually brings us to the second key in this game, scoring from beyond the arc. The Rams actually shoot the ball well from 3, ranking 63rd in the country in 3-point percentage (36.6 percent). They needed 11 3-pointers to say close in the first meeting between these two teams.
The issue for the Rams comes in defending the 3, where they rank 331st in the country, allowing opponents to shoot 37.0 percent from deep. The Aztecs (36.1 percent from 3 this season) should be able to take advantage of that.
San Diego State is only 5-6-2 against the spread as a home favorite this season, but its average margin of victory in those games is 12.8 points. I’ll lay the double digits with the Mountain West’s top dog on Tuesday night.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
