The ultimate ‘Cinderella’ is in the East Region after No. 16 seed stunned No. 1 seed Purdue in the first round of the 2023 NCAA Tournament.
Now, the Knights look to keep the March Madness magic alive against No. 9 Florida Atlantic, who won a thriller in the final seconds against Memphis in the game following FDU’s shocking upset over Purdue as 23.5-point underdogs.
The Knights find themselves as big underdogs once again with a spot in the Sweet 16 on the line. How should we bet it? First, let’s check out the odds:
Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Florida Atlantic prediction and pick
While the Knights are a great story, the road stops here for the No. 16 seed. Purdue wasn’t properly suited to take advantage of the FDU ball pressure, as the Boilermakers committed 16 turnovers in the loss. However, Florida Atlantic has more than enough ball handlers to open up the Knights turnover-driven defense.
If you can avoid turnovers against Farleigh Dickinson, you are in busy. The team is over-reliant on forcing TO’s, 32nd in the country in turnover rate, but FAU is 69th in protecting the rock as the team typically has four play makers on the floor around big man Vladislav Goldin.
Head coach Dusty May runs a fantastic offensive scheme that spreads the floor out with efficient three-point shooting and driving lanes for their ball handlers. The team is 38th in three-point rate and they hit them at a 37% clip. This should work out great against FDU’s defense that is 346th in effective field goal percentage and outside the top 100 in effective field goal percentage on offense.
FDU got a herculean effort in the first round to stun Purdue, but there were some exploitable edges in that one that head coach Tobin Anderson maximized. However, FAU is an even worse matchup given their ability to handle ball pressure and limit mistakes.
The ‘Cinderella run ends here. Lay it with the Owls.
