Everyone who’s picked a bracket with a group of friends knows that it pays to nail your Final Four picks.
Not only does it increase your chances at having the correct National Champion, but it also sets you up to compile more bracket points than your friends.
Predicting March Madness is often an impossible task with the nature of the one-and-done tournament, but let’s give it a shot anyways!
Here are my picks to make the Final Four in Houston and the odds of it happening.
NCAA Tournament Final Four Odds
NCAA Tournament Final Four Picks
Let’s get this out of the way: There have only been two years since 1985 in which the Final Four hasn’t had at least one No. 1 seed.
The No. 1 seeds have earned that distinction for a reason, and they often have a relatively easy path through the bracket.
On the other side of the coin, there has been at least one team ranked as a No. 5 seed or worse that has made the Final Four in each of the past seven NCAA Tournaments, so let’s not count out some long shots, either.
Here are my picks for the Final Four:
South Region Winner: No. 6 Creighton
Let’s talk about the underdog pick first.
There’s a good chance that one of the Final Four teams isn’t a top-seeded team and Creighton has a good path to make that a reality.
The Bluejays are ranked as the No. 13 overall team in the nation, according to Ken Pom. St. Mary’s (11th overall) is the only other team lower than a 4 seed to be this high in the rankings, but the Gaels would have to get through a region that includes Kansas, UCLA and Gonzaga.
Creighton, on the other hand, would have to get through: NC State, Baylor, Arizona and Alabama in the toughest path possible for them (barring no upsets).
Creighton is a well-rounded team, ranked 36th in the nation in offensive efficiency and 72nd in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Bluejays also have FIVE players who average over 11 points per game, so they won’t be reliant on one or two players to stay hot for the tournament.
If you’re looking for an upset Final Four pick, the Bluejays are one of the most intriguing picks available.
West Region Winner: No. 3 Gonzaga
This region is going to be interesting to say the least.
The West includes UCLA (No. 2 in KenPom), UConn (No. 4), Gonzaga (No. 8) and Kansas (No. 9). You can’t go wrong picking any of these teams to advance, but I’m going with the Bulldogs.
The Zags have a bonafide star and senior leader in Drew Timme heading a lineup full of experienced and talented players.
Their defense leaves a lot to be desired (174th in defensive efficiency), but they can win a shootout against just about anyone. Gonzaga has the No. 1 offensive efficiency in the country, averaging a nation-high 86.5 points per game.
And while UCLA could prove to be a tough matchup for the Zags, a season-ending injury to Jaylen Clark takes some of the Bruins’ defensive strength away. If Gonzaga makes it past UCLA, it would only have to face one of Kansas or UConn to make the Final Four.
East Region Winner: No. 1 Purdue
We’re three picks in and now it’s finally time to take a No. 1 seed!
The Boilermakers have been on the precipice of an NCAA Tournament breakthrough for half a decade under coach Matt Painter. The team has made it as far as the Sweet Sixteen in each of its last three appearances in the tournament.
Purdue lost just five games this season, including just two by double digits, which means they likely won’t be prone to a terrible stretch of basketball.
Led by double-double monster Zach Edey, Purdue is limited on big-time scorers, but is still ranked No. 12 in offensive efficiency while maintaining a No. 56 ranking in defensive efficiency.
The path to the Final Four isn’t tough to envision, either.
Memphis, Tennessee and Marquette represent the toughest possible path for Purdue and only the Volunteers rank inside the top-10 of KenPom.
Take the Boilermakers to break through in one of the weaker regions of the tournament.
Midwest Region Winner: No. 1 Houston
How fun would it be if the Cougars were playing in the Final Four in their home city 40 years after their first National Championship appearance in 1983?
This Cougars team, ranked No. 1 according to KenPom, has what it takes.
Teams don’t get more well-rounded than this. Houston is ranked No. 5 in offensive efficiency and No. 1 in defensive efficiency this season.
The team has lost three games the entire season, including the last one it played – the AAC Championship to Memphis.
Rather than seeing that loss as a sign of things to come, I think it will only serve as further motivation for a team that hasn’t had much trouble winning all season.
The Cougars’ biggest challengers to the Final Four would likely be Miami/Indiana and Texas/Xavier. Of that group, the Longhorns are a team Houston will have to worry about, but otherwise, no other team ranks inside the top 15 in the nation, according to KenPom.
Trust what the record, efficiency stats and seeding say: Take the Coogs to play in Houston.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
