The Air Force Falcons and Fresno State Bulldogs are both 5-10 in Mountain West play this season, but someone has to win Tuesday’s matchup.
The Falcons won the first matchup between these teams in a low scoring affair, 51-48. Now, they get a shot at home, where they are 10-7 this season, to sweep the season series.
Fresno State has been much worse overall this season (9-17) compared to Air Force (14-14), but neither of these teams are making the NCAA Tournament without winning the conference tourney.
The Bulldogs are mired in a rough patch, coming into this game on a three-game skid. Does that change tonight on the road?
Here’s how I’m betting this game and the latest odds for this Mountain West matchup:
Fresno State vs. Air Force odds, spread and total
Fresno State vs. Air Force prediction and pick
These teams both hang their hats on the defensive end of the floor, hence the low-scoring game we saw the first time they met.
Air Force ranks 96th in opponent points per game while the Bulldogs clock in at No. 39 in that statistic.
This is a low total, but I think there is value in the Falcons as short home favorites in this game.
So far this season, Air Force is 7-2 against the spread as a home favorite, and it covered this number on the road against Fresno State earlier this season.
The Bulldogs are just 3-8 straight up on the road going 6-10 ATS as dogs of 1.5 or more points in the 2022-23 campaign.
This is going to be a slog, but the Falcons (99th in 3-point percentage, 21st in opponent 3-point percentage) should win this game. The Bulldogs are a bad shooting team, ranking 354th in the country in 3-point percentage and 313th in effective field goal percentage.
I don’t see them snapping this losing streak against a good defense on the road.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
