South Africa’s new surge
South Africa is seeing signs of a fifth wave of the coronavirus as cases once again surge across the country. The recent spike is linked to two new subvariants that are part of the Omicron family: BA.4 and BA.5.
In the past week, cases have tripled, positivity rates have risen, and hospitalizations have increased. The surge, which is mainly concentrated in the Gauteng, Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal provinces, comes only a few months after South Africa’s initial Omicron wave last winter.
BA.4 and BA.5 are both offshoots of the original Omicron variant, which emerged sometime around November. In January, Omicron gave rise to a lineage of the virus with even more mutations, which included BA.4 and BA.5. Here’s what we know so far:
Emerging data show that in unvaccinated people, BA.4 and BA.5 evade the natural defenses produced from an Omicron infection.
The two new subvariants spread more quickly than BA.2, which itself was more contagious than the original Omicron variant.
Scientists are still studying whether this new wave creates more severe illness.
In the U.S., public health officials have identified BA.4 and BA.5 circulating at low levels. But another Omicron subvariant, BA.2, is currently dominant, and one more subvariant, BA.2.12.1, is gaining ground.
“Scientists have been trying to figure out what those mutations do for the variants, and it looks like it helps them evade immunity from earlier forms of Omicron,” said my colleague Carl Zimmer. “A year ago, we were amazed at how fast Delta was spreading at the time. And in a year, we’ve gone through several upgrades of this virus, and now it spreads way faster. It’s on par with measles.”
We also seem to be in a different pattern of evolution, Carl added. In 2021, we saw new variants that were markedly different from other forms of the virus. But now we’re experiencing evolutionary upgrades to viruses that remain in the Omicron family tree.
“This is familiar terrain for scientists because this is similar to what the flu does, and other viruses do,” Carl said. “Instead of something leaping out of the blue, you have an existing virus that is clearly working very well, and then, thanks to evolution, works even better.”
It’s difficult to predict what the surge in South Africa means for other countries. Local spikes can depend on a lot of factors, including local levels of immunity, virus restrictions and weather conditions.
Researchers estimate that about 90 percent of the population in South Africa has some immunity, in part from inoculation but largely because of previous infection. Yet immunity from infection typically begins to wane at around three months. It’s natural to see re-infection at that stage, particularly given people’s changing behaviors, like less mask-wearing and increased traveling, one expert said.
Even so, as the epidemiologist Katelyn Jetelina noted: “If ‘endemic’ SARS-CoV-2 is six-month infection waves, we are in for a wild ride.”
Beijing under pressure
China’s capital has reopened a mass coronavirus isolation center with 1,000 beds, the latest in a raft of measures to try to stave off a citywide lockdown.
While the city has recorded only 400 cases since April 22, officials are under immense pressure to quickly suppress outbreaks and avoid the fate of Shanghai, where residents are still being told to stay home.
In recent days, Beijing officials have placed a temporary ban on dining in restaurants, closed schools indefinitely and ordered residents to show proof of a negative test within the past week to enter public spaces and use public transportation. Nearly all of Beijing’s 22 million residents have undergone three rounds of testing, and so far, the scale of the outbreak appears to be limited.
Since the beginning of March, Shanghai has reported more than 550,000 cases, leading officials to institute harsh quarantine measures that have resulted in shortages of food and supplies, and in protests. However, cases in Shanghai are declining. Today, the authorities reported about 6,600 new infections, down from 7,800 on Sunday.
Noticeably absent from the conversation on lockdowns during the last month was China’s leader, Xi Jinping. In April, Xi gave no public speeches focused on outbreaks in China, and he didn’t directly address the 25 million residents of Shanghai during their lockdown.
He wants to deliberately keep a certain distance from Shanghai, said Deng Yuwen, a former editor of a Communist Party newspaper who now lives in the U.S. “No doubt, he’s doing a lot about fighting the pandemic behind the scenes, but of course he does not want to be directly drawn into the mess in Shanghai.”
The summer we’ve been waiting for
Last summer felt full of promise. Many of us entered the season freshly jabbed, and, after languishing for months in lockdown, we were ready to take back our social lives. During those first weeks of warmer weather, many of us took our first steps toward re-engaging with friends, events, colleagues and a brighter future — until the Delta variant crashed the party.
Will this summer be different? Not only are we smarter about how to protect ourselves, we’re more realistic about what might be in store, and can therefore plan accordingly. Some have argued that this is actually the summer we’ve been waiting for.
But we want to hear from you: What does summer 2022 mean to you? And how are you approaching it? You can share your thoughts with us here. We may use your response in an upcoming newsletter.
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What you’re doing
I am a school teacher and one of the few to wear a mask. Recently, I was hit hard with Covid-19. I went home early and then to the hospital by ambulance. The doctor said he hadn’t seen a Covid case in months. I am home recovering now. I am happy I had my mask on around my unmasked students. It didn’t keep me from getting Covid, but hopefully it kept me from spreading it.
— Heidi Valery, Deptford, N.J.
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