New York’s fifth wave
New York City is often a bellwether for the nation when it comes to the virus, and the warning lights are flashing: Earlier this week, rising case counts and hospitalizations triggered a “high Covid alert,” indicating “high community spread” and “substantial pressure” on health care services.
This latest wave, which is New York City’s fifth, started in mid-March. At first it was driven by the BA.2 subvariant of Omicron, but now most cases are caused by newer versions — primarily BA.2.12.1, which is more transmissible than its predecessor and made up roughly 73 percent of new cases across New York, New Jersey and Puerto Rico as of mid-May, according to the C.D.C.
For the latest on the city, I spoke with my colleague Joseph Goldstein, who covers health care in New York.
What’s the current situation?
The rise this time has been building much more gradually compared with the first Omicron wave a few months back. But there’s a lot of virus circulating right now and the numbers keep climbing. Currently we’re seeing more than 4,000 confirmed cases a day, but those official numbers dramatically undercount how many people are sick because they don’t incorporate at-home tests.
Here’s another metric: A company called Kinsa, which distributes internet-connected thermometers, said that just over 4 percent of its users in New York City reported fevers in recent days. That’s a very high number. In non-Covid years it might be below 1.5 percent. You have to go back to the days of Omicron in December and January to see numbers that high.
What about hospitalizations?
New Covid hospitalizations are at about 150 a day. For comparison, in early January, there were a couple of days when it was over a thousand. So while we’re seeing an increase in hospitalizations, we aren’t seeing a dizzying rise as in January, when some emergency rooms were so packed you had to pick your path through gurneys.
Why is that?
C.D.C. research suggests that nearly a third of the city was probably infected during the Omicron wave in January and December. So presumably a lot of New Yorkers have more protection now against severe forms of the disease. Also, more people have received their booster shots. And the antiviral pill Paxlovid is making a difference, too.
How is the city approaching this wave?
Mayor Eric Adams has been very clear that he’s not interested in introducing new restrictions unless the hospital system is in danger of being overwhelmed, and experts say that’s not likely here. Epidemiologists are not predicting a precipitous rise in hospitalizations as we saw during the first Omicron wave back in December and January.
Most Covid restrictions have been dropped in New York City. But there is also still a substantial health apparatus built up around Covid here. Testing is widely available. There’s an organized system for distributing antivirals. In New York, there are also still a lot more people wearing masks than in other parts of the country, but it’s largely not a place where the government is requiring you to do it anymore.
What’s the atmosphere like?
You walk around New York City these days, and it’s extraordinary how many people are coughing. But this is also around the time when tree pollen tends to peak here. It seems as if everybody has either been sick with Covid recently or knows a bunch of people — colleagues and friends — who just had it.
That said, I think a lot of people are going about their lives, though others are still avoiding unmasked, public indoor settings, like crowded bars and restaurants. Everyone makes their own risk assessment.
We want to hear from you.
Tell us about your experience with this newsletter by answering this short survey.
A U.S. case of monkeypox
A Massachusetts man who had traveled to Canada has been diagnosed with the monkeypox virus, a rare and potentially fatal disease, the Massachusetts Department of Public Health reported this week. Another possible case is under investigation in New York City.
Monkeypox is a more benign version of the smallpox virus and can be treated with an antiviral drug developed for smallpox. Unlike measles, Covid or influenza, it does not typically cause large outbreaks.
Infection begins with fever and body aches. Its most recognizable feature is a characteristic rash that starts with flat red marks, then becomes raised and filled with pus.
While the U.S. has recorded cases in the past — Texas and Maryland each had one case last year — this is the first report this year and follows a series of unusual clusters in other countries. In the past few weeks, Britain has identified nine monkeypox cases, Spain has 23 suspected cases, and Canada is investigating at least 15 possible cases in Montreal.
In Britain, only one patient had recently traveled — to Nigeria, where a strain of the monkeypox virus has been commonly seen — while the remaining patients may have acquired the infection through community transmission.
The virus can spread via body fluids, contaminated objects or respiratory droplets expelled by an infected person. The cases in Britain and Canada were mostly spread among sexual partners.
Monkeypox is typically spread through bites or scratches from rodents and small mammals — not, despite its name, from monkeys. Risk factors also include contact with animals through hunting or consumption of wild game or bush meat.
My colleague Apoorva Mandavilli said that for the vast majority of people, the chances of contracting the virus were very low. “We know of only a few dozen cases worldwide so far,” she said.
While the news is alarming, you probably shouldn’t be overly concerned with monkeypox at the moment, argued Ed Yong in The Atlantic.
“When it comes to epidemics, people tend to fight the last war,” he wrote. “Because the U.S. catastrophically underestimated Covid, many Americans are panicking about monkeypox and reflexively distrusting any reassuring official statements.”
What else we’re following
What you’re doing
As the U.S. surpasses one million deaths from the virus, we’re continuing to remember those we’ve lost. Today’s remembrance comes from Isabel Galbo, who wrote about her grandmother Betty, who died in February 2021.
My grandma wasn’t like other grandparents, never spoiled us, and could put her foot down when she needed to. She was a foodie at heart and grocery store runs with her could take the whole day as she would intricately read every nutrition label on food packages. She had a horrible habit of being late to everything. I have inherited the same tendency, and my parents now say I have “grandma disease.” I shrug it off, but it makes me happy knowing I am like her, even in the smallest way. I am a senior in high school this year and plan to attend San Diego State in the fall. It pains me to know the next four years of my life will be spent in a beautiful city that would’ve been 15 minutes away from her. So many visits that could’ve been, but will never be.
Let us know how you’re dealing with the pandemic. Send us a response here, and we may feature it in an upcoming newsletter.
Sign up here to get the briefing by email.
Email your thoughts to briefing@nytimes.com.
