Ohio State has gotten itself out of a month long rut ahead of the Big Ten Tournament, will the heater continue in the season finale?
The Buckeyes snapped a nine-game losing streak in conference play, winning two straight games at home over the past week. Now, they travel to Michigan State to face a Spartans team that has alternated wins in tier last four games.
Michigan State won by 21 in Columbus back on Feb. 12, can it get another blowout win to cap off the regular season?
Ohio State vs. Michigan State odds, spread and total
Ohio State Buckeyes @ Michigan State Spartans | Current Best Odds
Ohio State vs. Michigan State prediction and pick
Michigan State suffocated Ohio State’s offense en route to a 62-41 win on the road, but I believe it is receiving a little too much credit to be laying points in this regular season finale.
Neither team plays particularly fast, each are bottom third nationally in tempo, and Michigan State is bottom 30 in turnover rate, so Ohio State should run its offense with little pressure. However, the Spartans are a stout overall defense that limits second chances and is elite at defending the perimeter.
To counter, Ohio State has the second lowest 3-point rate in the league, operating in the mid-range at a high level, 63rd in the country in mid-range field goal percentage per Haslametrics.
Further, Michigan State is shooting over 40% from 3 in Big Ten play, something that has carried them to a strong record, but may not be something to rely on when expected to win with margin.
I can’t look past the recent meeting between the two and the spread that closed with Ohio State laying 4.5 points. That was five games ago, and we have seen the Buckeyes show life despite the recent losing streak, covering in three straight. With an inflated spread, I’ll play against it and take the underdog.
