Oklahoma is running out of any hope to make the NCAA Tournament, unless they go on a run in the Big 12 Tournament.
It won’t get any easier for the 14-15 Sooners, as they host Kansas State, who is off a three straight wins and sit at 22-7 on the year. K-State has been humming on defense and will face a struggling Oklahoma offense, how should we attack it from a betting perspective?
Here are the odds for this Wednesday showdown:
Oklahoma vs. Kansas State odds, spread and total
Oklahoma vs. Kansas State prediction and pick
These two teams met on Valentine’s Day and OU was able to score an impressive home win, 79-65, going over the total of 141.5. Now we have a similar set up with the same exact total on the board.
Despite the first meeting going over the total, I’ll go under in this one. Kansas State was once a dynamic offensive team around Markquis Nowell and Keyontae Johnson, but they have been buoyed by their defense during their recent stretch of form. Since the start of February, the Wildcats have the third best defense in the country and the 141st best offense (shooting 28% from beyond the arc), per Bart Torvik.
K-State is playing fast, top 60 in the country, but the defense has been stifling. They’ll be facing Oklahoma, who has been similarly lopsided over the last month. OU is 56th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 166th in offensive efficiency.
While OU is struggling to protect the ball against a turnover generating defense, the team does a good job of limiting transition defense (top third in the country).
Oklahoma shot 11-for-23 from beyond the arc in the first meeting and 51% from the floor. I simply don’t see that type of shooting sustaining for a team that has struggled on that side of the floor all season and is facing an elite defense.
The first meeting may have gone over, but this one’s going under.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
