Tennessee’s erratic SEC play has been on full display over the last two weeks, losers of four of their last six, but one of those wins came against the best team in the conference in Alabama.
However, the Vols haven’t win a road game since January 21st, and now they face one of the hottest teams in the country in Texas A&M, who is 12-2 in SEC play and has won five straight. The Aggies are playing like a top 10 team at the moment and Tennessee is struggling on offense amidst injuries.
Will the Vols get some key players back, and can their offense handle the A&M ball pressure? Here are the odds for this pivotal SEC matchup:
Tennessee vs. Texas A&M odds, spread and total
Tennessee vs. Texas A&M prediction and pick
This is a tough matchup for Tennessee, who lacks the necessary ball handlers to challenge the Texas A&M defense that is as compact as any in the country. The Aggies are fourth in average shot proximity allowed, per Haslametrics, and have relentless ball pressure that turns opponents over at the fourth highest rate in SEC play.
The Vols offensive issues have been highly concerning. Over the last six games, the team is 358th in effective field goal percentage (there are 363th Division 1 teams) and are 326th in free throw rate allowed. It doesn’t help that Tennessee has been without several key contributors, Julian Philips and Josiah-Jordan James, but they may not be getting help in that department anytime soon.
Facing a unique defense that plays a ton of zone defense in Texas A&M is going to make for a ton of issues for the short handed Vols offense.
Meanwhile, the Tennessee defense could struggle against an Aggies offense that has two dynamic ball handlers in Tyrece Radford and Wade Taylor that is leading a group that is shooting over 40% from beyond the arc since the start of February.
Most importantly though is Texas A&M’s physicality. The Aggies get to the line at the second highest rate in the SEC and are also second in offensive rebounding rate. If the team is cleaning the glass and winning the extra categories (free throws and second chances), I like Buzz Williams’ squad chances of scoring their biggest win of the season.
I’ll take the Aggies as very small favorites.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
