There’s few better times of year than March. There’s college basketball on all day long as the season transitions into postseason play, and boy is there opportunities to be had on the betting card.
Eyeing Wednesday’s slate, I’m looking at the early game in the ACC Tournament between Georgia Tech and Pitt and reliable underdog Wisconsin later on in the Big Ten Tournament opener as the team tries to stay on the right side of the bubble against Ohio State.
I bet those two games, and a handful of others too, which I detail below. For all my bets, check out my betstamp @ rw33 to get them in real time and not miss the best of the number.
College basketball betting record to date
College basketball best bets for Wednesday, March 8th
- Georgia Tech +7 vs. Pittsburgh
- Wisconsin +2.5 vs. Ohio State
- Utah PK vs. Stanford
- North Carolina State -2.5 vs. Virginia Tech
Georgia Tech vs. Pittsburgh prediction and pick
Pitt made waves in an underwhelming ACC with a six game winning streak in January and February, but the team has come back to Earth over the last few weeks, losing three of five. While one of those wins came at home against Georgia Tech, that was a competitive game throughout in which the Yellow Jackets stayed within the number the whole time, losing 76-68 as 11.5-point underdogs.
The issue has been Pitt’s defense that is bottom 100 in effective field goal percentage over the last month and is sending teams to the free throw line at a bottom 60 rate in that time span. Both meetings between the two were grinding affairs, 61 and 63 possessions respectively, so there won’t be many opportunities for the Panthers to pull away if they are sending the Yellow Jackets to the free throw line that often.
Further, both teams are 3-point reliant groups, but Georgia Tech’s zone defense is far better at defending the perimeter. Over the last month, Pitt has allowed teams to shoot over 38% from beyond the arc while Georgia Tech has allowed teams to shoot 28%, which checks in as the 16th lowest mark in the country. As well, GT is shooting nearly 40% from deep while sporting a top 10 turnover rate in the country.
Georgia Tech covered their last seven games to close the season over the last month before failing to cover the 2.5-point spread against Florida State on Tuesday in a one-point win.
I can’t look past the recent form of each team in a game where the possessions will be limited and one team is far better at defending the other teams strengths.
In the interest of transparency, I bet a +7.5 this morning, but I’d still play the +7 which is widely available.
PICK: Georgia Tech +7
Wisconsin vs. Ohio State prediction and pick
While Ohio State has gotten out of its month-plus slump with a handful of impressive showings, I don’t believe it should be favored on a neutral court against Wisconsin.
The Badgers have made a living of staying close to teams, but struggle to get over the hump late in games.
However, the team’s prodding style of play has made every game a grind, evident in some of their recent losses to Purdue by two, Rutgers by one and a pair of overtime defeats to Michigan and Nebraska on the road.
The Badgers defense has struggled to slow teams down at the rim, right around the national average this season in field goal percentage allowed at the cup, but Ohio State has a propensity to settle for below average looks in the mid-range. While the team has bucket getters like Brice Sensabaugh, the team has been a below average two-point offense in league play due to poor shot selection.
The Wisconsin offense isn’t great either, a stagnant unit that settles for 3s way too often, but the Buckeyes have been one of the worst perimeter defenses in the country over the past month, allowing opponents to hit on more than 39% of their shots from beyond the arc.
Wisconsin doesn’t turn the ball over, posting the lowest turnover rate in the Big Ten, and its shot profile can give it an edge against an Ohio State team that settles far too much. In a game with few possessions, and the Badgers propensity to stay close to teams, getting a bucket feels advantageous.
PICK: Wisconsin +2.5
Utah vs. Stanford prediction and pick
Utah limps into the PAC-12 Tournament after losing five straight and seven of nine, including once at home to Stanford, but the team was hit by the injury bug over the past month and are getting healthy at the right time.
Rollie Worster, the team’s lead ball handler, and Gabe Madsen, the team’s best 3-point shooter, each returned to the lineup on Saturday against Colorado, a massive upgrade from what Utah has been trotting out of late.
When those two are both on the floor, Utah sees significant upticks on both sides of the ball, a near six percent increase in effective field goal percentage on offense while also allowing almost nine fewer points per 100 possessions, operating like a top 15 defense.
Further, the team shuts down the perimeter with those two on the floor, allowing opponents to shoot below 29% from the perimeter, which is the key to the Stanford offense, who led the PAC-12 in 3-point shooting as a team.
Utah is undervalued after a poor string of games due in part to injury. Back to 100%, the Utes should be favored.
PICK: Utah PK
Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina State prediction and pick
The Wolfpack won the first meeting between the two on Jan. 7 in Blacksburg, 73-69, but Hunter Cattoor didn’t play for the Hokies in that game.
While Cattoor gives Virginia Tech a necessary floor spacer, he is a target for future first-round picks Terquavion Smith and Jarkel Joiner to attack on the other end. In the first meeting the two N.C. State guards combined for 43 points and the two should have another big game getting down hill against a Hokies interior defense that was 11th in two-point field goal percentage allowed.
While Va. Tech has a potent offense, N.C. State’s ball pressure can give point guard Sean Pedulla fits. He had four turnovers in the first meeting against the Wolfpack’s pressure (without Cattoor to help out for what is a shallow backcourt to be fair) and that can lead to issues for the Hokies and their motion offense.
Ultimately, I see too many matchup edges for the Wolfpack on both sides of the ball. VT’s defense has fallen off a cliff in league play and I believe both Smith and Joiner can take over in the halfcourt to pull away.
PICK: North Carolina State -2.5
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
