We are in the dog days of conference play as the pressure ahead of Selection Sunday mounts, but it’s also the dog days for sports bettors.
College basketball is a grind to bet and the volume is so high, make sure to keep a level head and trust the process, even if you’re mired in a cold spell (can’t you tell I’m in one?).
There’s a handful of marquee matchups on Wednesday night, and I’m looking at Florida vs. Alabama and a Mountain West showdown between San Diego State and Utah State as my two favorites for Tuesday.
For more, check out my betstamp @ rw33.
College basketball season long record
College basketball best bets for Wednesday, February 8th
- Florida-Alabama UNDER 149
- Utah State -2 vs. San Diego State
Florida vs. Alabama prediction and pick
This is a battle between two of the best defenses in the country, each inside the top 10 nationally in defensive efficiency according to KenPom. However, where the two teams differ is on offense as the Crimson Tide is an explosive unit that bolster an elite transition attack while Florida is a middle of the road defense that has struggled to find their perimeter shot all season. The Gators are shooting just 30% from the 3-point line in SEC play.
UF’s offense has held the team back from reaching its lofty goals under first year head coach Todd Golden, but the defense is elite around big man Colin Castleton, as the team does a fantastic job of forcing mid-range jumpers. Now, Alabama prefers to shoot only 3s or layups under analytic-savvy Nate Oats, but I’ll side with Florida’s elite defense making life difficult for the Crimson Tide.
On the other side, Florida has been particularly poor on offense on the road, scoring under 70 in all six conference away games.
The defense is going to keep this competitive against the up-tempo Crimson Tide, Florida has a top 50 transition defense this season, but ultimately this game is shaping up for a lower than expecting scoring affair. Give me the under in this SEC matchup.
PICK: UNDER 149
San Diego State vs. Utah State prediction and pick
San Diego State won the first meeting between these two on January 25th, 85-75, but I like the home team in the rematch. San Diego State shot 54% from 3 then, well above its season long level as a middling 3-point team.
While the team has been shooting well in conference play (up nearly five percent), I don’t expect that to keep up at altitude in Logan, Utah.
Not to mention, the Aggies are the best 3-point shooting team in the country, shooting over 40% from 3 on the entire season.
San Diego State pressed Utah State a ton in the first meeting, and the Aggies didn’t have much issue scoring in that one, the team scored 1.17 points per possession (an elite mark). However, the team couldn’t compete with the Aztecs elite shot making in that one and ultimately was kept at arms length all game.
Changing locations to one of the toughest places to play in Logan is pivotal for me as San Diego State has been one of the worst teams away from home all season, outside the top 300 in Haslametrics‘ Away/Home court split.
I’ll take the Aggies as small home favorites.
PICK: Utah State -2
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
