We have a loaded slate of college basketball action set to take place this Saturday.
In this article, I’m going to be breaking down me three favorite bets for the day.
If you want to check out the full list of best available odds for the event, you can find those here.
Let’s not waste any time. We have college basketball to bet on. Here are my three best bets for today.
Best college basketball bets today
- West Virginia +10 vs. Kansas
- Purdue -6.5 vs. Indiana
- Saint Mary’s +5.5 vs. Gonzaga
West Virginia +10 vs. Kansas
It’s going to be tough to bet against the defending champions, especially considering how hot they’ve been lately, but I think this could be a bit of a sell high spot on them. Will they win? Likely, but covering the spread is a completely different question.
West Virginia is likely a better team than you’d assume if you just looked at their record. They’re inside the top 150 in the country in both effective field goal percentage and opponent effective field goal percentage.
They also have a chance to grab some second chance scoring opportunities against Kansas today. They’re 24th in college basketball in offensive rebounding, while Kansas only grabs 74.3% of defensive rebounds.
If the Mountaineers can force some second chance scoring opportunities, and can find a way to score on this Kansas defense, I think a double-digit spread is a little bit too much. I like West Virginia to cover.
Purdue -6.5 vs. Indiana
I was on Indiana to win when they hosted Purdue just a few short weeks ago. Today, I’m switching sides and I’m going to back the Boilermakers instead.
The cause for my switch comes down to two main factors; Indiana’s poor shooting on the road and their subpar form entering the game.
Indiana’s effective field goal percentage goes from 58.1% at home to 49.8% on the road. That’s a drop of 8.3% (!!). Not only that, but their eFG% has been 50.6% over their last three games, a drop of 3.8% from their season average.
Indiana has also done a bad job lately in the turnover department, coughing it up on 19.9% of possessions over their last three games, an increase of 2.5% compared to their season average.
There’s enough in the numbers for me to back Purdue to win and cover in this Big Ten showdown.
Saint Mary’s +5.5 vs. Gonzaga
Saint Mary’s has proven at several instances this season that they’re the new kings of the West Coast Conference. In case there were any doubters, they’re going to prove it again tonight.
Gonzaga hasn’t lost since their February 4th game against the Gaels, so tonight’s rematch is a pivotal one.
My main concern with the Bulldogs is their defense hasn’t been nearly good as they’ve been in years past. In fact, I’d venture to say their defense is downright bad. heading into tonight, they rank 269th in opponent effective field goal percentage and 187th in defensive efficiency.
Saint Mary’s ranks 13th and sixth in those two categories.
It’s also worth noting that 67.7% of Gonzaga’s shots come from two-point range, which ranks 58th in the country. Now, they face a Gaels defense that’s eighth in opponent two-point shooting percentage, keeping teams to shooting only 44.1% from down low.
Give me Saint Mary’s to cover in this game, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them win outright.
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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
