The grind of conference play continues on Wednesday night with plenty of high level matchups.
The best bets column had a 3-1 Tuesday with Providence coming home in double overtime and Wisconsin surviving against Michigan at home, but you’re only as good as your most recent bet so let’s see if we can keep it going on Wednesday.
Here are three plays I made, but if there are any adds they will come on my betstamp @ rw33
College basketball season long betting record
College basketball best bets for today
- Mississippi State -3 vs. Kentucky
- Indiana -2.5 vs. Northwestern
- Parlay: Texas A&M/Saint Louis ML
Mississippi State vs. Kentucky prediction and pick
Mississippi State’s defense checks in top five in the country according to KenPom and has maintained an elite level in conference play. The team forces more turnovers in SEC play than any team in the conference and they shut down any penetration, forcing their opponents into jump shots at a high clip. The team is top 15 in the country in average shot proximity allowed.
While Kentucky has found its stride from the perimeter, hitting more than 34% of its three-point shots (second best in SEC games), the team has the lowest 3-point rate. Mississippi State is going to shut down driving lanes for the Wildcats guards and post ups for Oscar Tshiebwe and the ball pressure can lead to contested pull up jump shots. I see a struggle for UK on Wednesday night with this matchup.
On the other side of the floor, Mississippi State has struggled on offense all year, a bottom 10 3-point shooting group, but Kentucky has struggled to keep teams out of the paint and the Bulldogs are top 30 in the country finishing at the rim while Kentucky is 237th defending it, per Haslametrics.
Kentucky’s struggled on the road all season, 3-6 against the spread, and I don’t think it gets an easier against an elite Miss. State defense. I would play this up to -3, but you can hold on to see if any -2.5’s appear ahead of tip off.
PICK: Mississippi State -3
Indiana vs. Northwestern prediction and pick
Indiana is a different ball club then when they lost at home to Northwestern on Jan. 8 as the Hoosiers were mired in a Big Ten slump as Trayce Jackson-Davis struggled with a back injury. Gimpy, the National Player of the Year still had 18 points, 24 rebounds (not a typo) and eight assists. Now, he’s fully healthy and the Hoosiers are starting to realize their ceiling.
They head to Evanston after shutting down Michigan in the final five minutes to score an impressive road win and face the Wildcats after they beat No. 1 Purdue at home on Sunday.
Indiana must limit turnovers against the second best defense at generating them in B1G play, but the team should dominate on the glass where Northwestern checks in last in defensive rebounding rate.
TJD is the difference maker in this one as Northwestern doesn’t have an answer for him, it regularly sent doubles at him in the first meeting, and the rest of the roster has rounded into form as the Hoosiers are the second best three-point shooting team in league play.
I was able to grab an early moneyline on the Hoosiers, so now laying over a bucket is less enticing, but I do envision Indiana wins this one convincingly. If you’d opt for a moneyline parlay with the Hoosiers, that is a worthwhile look with teams such as Bradley, VCU, Cincinnati or Marquette.
PICK: Indiana -2.5
Texas A&M vs. Arkansas prediction and pick
These teams met in Fayetteville about two weeks ago in a highly competitive matchup that Arkansas ended up winning by 11. The score makes this game a bit more lopsided than it appeared, but in reality this was a winnable game for the Aggies, who shot 34% on two-point tries and 58% from the line and was within a few points for much of the second half.
While Arkansas did get star freshman Nick Smith back from injury on Saturday, he only played 17 minutes and the team lost at home to Mississippi State. The team hits the road now to face Texas A&M, who has been one of the best overall teams in the country since the calendar flipped to 2023, third in Bart Torvik’s rating when filtered to begin in January.
A&M’s ball pressure will give Arkansas issues, who are 12th in SEC turnover rate, and the team’s zone defense will force the Razorbacks into perimeter shots where they struggle a ton, shooting below 30% in SEC play from deep.
I missed the opening number of Texas A&M and opted to pair it with Saint Louis to create a +123 moneyline parlay. SLU is 11-3 at home and while the team has dropped three of four, they get a reprieve against Davidson’s defense that they took care of on the road on Jan. 27, 74-70 as 2.5-point road favorites. At home, I like the Bilks to take care of business as a likely winner.
PICK: Texas A&M/Saint Louis ML Parlay
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
