Texas Tech and West Virginia will have their rubber match in the first round of the Big 12 Championship on Wednesday night.
Texas Tech has had an up-and-down season, starting 0-8 in Big 12 play, but finished strong, going 5-5 over the rest of the season. However, it’s clearly been a long season in Lubbock, as the team suspended head coach Mark Adams for the rest of the season after a “racially insensitive comment.”
Now, the Red Raiders head to the Big 12 Championship looking to play spoiler with an interim head coach in Corey Williams leading the way. They start their tournament against West Virginia, who is firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble.
Can West Va. avoid another poor loss and a sweat on Selection Sunday? Here are the odds:
Texas Tech vs. West Virginia odds, spread and total
Texas Tech vs. West Virginia prediction and pick
It may seem like the end is near for Texas Tech, but I’m not going to over analyze what is going on off the court and try to stick on the court, where the team has found their three-point shot, hitting on more than 38% of their shots from beyond the arc over the last month.
That’s massive against a West Virginia team that has struggled to score all conference play, second lowest Big 12 effective field goal percentage. The Mountaineers are reliant on generating second chances and getting to the free throw line, best in conference play in both metrics. However, the Red Raiders are a sound rebounding team and have the lowest free throw rate allowed in conference play.
West Virginia’s defense has also been exposed as Big 12 play has continued, allowing opponents to shoot over 41% from three over the past month, the 17th highest in the country over that span.
While it appears that the Mountaineers are riding high, winner of three of their last four with the lone loss coming at Kansas by two, let’s dive a little deeper. Texas Tech closed as six-and-half point underdogs to West Virginia on February 18th, a six point win for the Red Raiders. When you remove home court (about three points) that gives us +3.5.
I think that this line is overreacting to the Adams’ suspension and there’s line value on the underdog on a neutral floor who should be close to +3 given some of the matchup advantages TTU has.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
