Two teams coming off emotional victories meet in the CAA finals on Tuesday night.
College of Charleston has been the best team in the CAA all season, 28-3 in the regular season and 16-2 in conference, only behind Hofstra in league play. The Cougars survived a late rally from Towson to advance to the conference title game to face upstart UNC Wilmington, who stunned Hofstra in overtime on Monday night.
The Seahawks made the CAA title game last season and are now a surprise entrant into this one, can they pull another stunner as double digit underdogs, or will Charleston realize its potential and clinch a spot in the NCAA Tournament?
Here are the odds for this highly anticipated title game:
UNC Wilmington vs. Charleston odds, spread and total
UNC Wilmington vs. Charleston prediction and pick
Charleston escaped the first meeting with a two-point win, but UNCW covered the two-and-a-half point spread, but then the Cougars smashed the Seahawks at home 93-61 in the second meeting.
Charleston has the CAA’s best offense by a wide margin, able to crash the glass at a league high rate and convert from all over the floor, posting the second best effective field goal percentage. However, UNC Wilmington should test the Charleston ball handlers with the highest turnover rate in the league and a stout perimeter defense that is holding foes to 30% from 3.
On offense, the Seahawks are going to look to slow this game down and not get into a track meet with the Cougars, as we saw how the second matchup went.
I believe the key to UNC Wilmington staying in this game is getting to the free throw line, something they do at an elite level, posting the 20th highest free throw rate in the country. While Charleston has done a great job this season of limiting opponent trips to the charity strip (23rd in the country), UNCW was able to go to the line 41 times across the two meetings.
This is simply too many points for a Seahawks team that not only has championship experience but also matchup advantages to slow down the College of Charleston offense and make it into more of a rock fight.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
